Japanese media recently reported that the United States and Japan are working on a new framework to regulate the export of cutting-edge technology to prevent the outflow of private technology. Experts believe that existing international mechanisms have failed to accommodate the maximum benefits of cutting-edge technology export controls, and member states of the new framework will have to balance internal and external pressures.
New frontiers to regulate cutting-edge technology
The Japanese media "Yomiuri Shimbun" reported on January 10 that in order to prevent the outflow of advanced private technology to China, the governments of the United States and Japan are discussing the establishment of a new framework for regulating the export of cutting-edge technology, and considering cooperation with European countries that share values.
The report pointed out that the US and Japanese governments are wary of China's use of imported products in domestic technology research and development to strengthen its economic and military power.
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the Institute of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, told VOA that after the war, in order to prevent the Soviet Union and other communist countries from using imported technology to strengthen their military, the United States and other Western countries once established a "Coordinating Committee for Multinational Export Control". Multilateral Export Controls, COCOM), but disbanded in 1994 after the end of the Cold War. Currently, there are several international frameworks for preventing the outflow of specific technologies, which are basically weapons-based.
Suzuki said: "Now there is a 'Nuclear Suppliers Group' (NSG) composed of 48 countries, including China, which is the first to be established. Relevant raw materials and technologies. The "Australia Group" (Australia Group, AG), which is composed of 43 countries, uses the unified export control to ensure that the products it exports are not used for chemical or biological weapons research and development; composed of 35 countries The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which regulates and controls the export and proliferation of missile technology in participating countries; and The Wassenaar Arrangement, which consists of 42 countries, which regulates traditional weapons The export of related technologies has also recently begun to cover the export of cutting-edge technologies and the exchange of information. These are all international mechanisms to prevent the proliferation of weapons.”
In an interview with VOA, Li Chun, deputy chief executive of the WTO and RTA Center of Taiwan's Chinese Economic Research Institute, said that in addition to the purpose of preventing weapons proliferation, the United States has restricted technology exports to China on the grounds of national security since 2017.
He said: "The United States passed the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA) in 2018, which, in addition to traditionally covering the control of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missile technology, maintaining regional stability, combating crime and terrorism, addressing In addition to the lack of demand and the implementation of United Nations resolutions, it also incorporates U.S. foreign policies such as maintaining and strengthening the U.S. industrial base and implementing U.S. foreign policies such as protecting human rights and promoting democracy. Obviously, the U.S. government actively hopes to maintain its global presence through the control of advanced technology. On the other hand, it will also officially launch a confrontation with China's power."
Semiconductor technology for military use
The Yomiuri Shimbun report pointed out that the U.S. Congress has criticized the use of U.S. semiconductor design software for weapons development in China, and believes that the situation that semiconductor manufacturing equipment exported from Japan and the Netherlands is used by China to enhance productivity is becoming more and more serious.
The report pointed out that the specific areas covered by the new framework of the United States and Japan are still under discussion, and may include related cutting-edge technologies such as manufacturing devices, quantum cryptography, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Li Chun, deputy chief executive of the WTO and RTA Center of Taiwan's Chinese Economic Research Institute, said that with the development of science and technology, the product technology areas concerned by the Wassenaar Agreement in recent years mainly cover electronic products, network information security, space technology, encryption technology, and marine equipment. Wait.
Li Chun said: "It also covers the control of many semiconductor-related products, including the semiconductor manufacturing blank mask and focal plane array (FPA) reading integrated circuits in 2017, and the definition or description of integrated circuit production related technologies and software in 2018. , 2019 In addition to the resolution to bring integrated circuit advanced process technology, composite manufacturing technology, and lithography equipment and technology into control, it has also been proposed to control military-grade semiconductor software and chip technology for military use."
Li Chun said that preventing cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors from flowing into military illicit uses has become a national security priority for countries such as Europe and the United States, but the existing mechanisms may not be suitable for cutting-edge technologies in terms of efficiency and binding force.
He said: "The Wassenaar Agreement was established only to promote information exchange and transparency among members on the traditional weapons and dual-use products currently under domestic control, and its control measures still mainly depend on the implementation of countries. Therefore, the Wassenaar Agreement is a voluntary norm in nature, and the export control items proposed by the members are decided through consensus, but the members are not bound by the treaty, so the legal effect is relatively weak.”
Li Chun pointed out that in addition to the issue of binding force, more than 40 countries, including the United States, Japan, and Russia, participated in the Wassenaar Agreement, and their interests were different. Therefore, it was very inefficient to decide on projects with standardized management. In view of this, the governments of the United States and Japan are considering forming a new framework with a few countries with similar values that possess cutting-edge technology to establish a mechanism that can quickly manage the export of cutting-edge technology.
Suzuki, a professor at the Institute of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, said that in fact, the existing mechanisms have all carried out technical management, but there are many countries in each mechanism, and it often takes a long time to reach an agreement on a technology.
He said: "In the recent competition between the United States and China, cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics have become more and more important, but very few countries have such technologies, and existing mechanisms include many that do not have this technology at all. Countries with similar cutting-edge technology, so it is often inefficient to reach consensus on these cutting-edge technology projects. However, if the rules to prevent the flow of technology are not determined in the mechanism, it is very likely that China will easily obtain artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence in the future. technologies that can be used for military purposes, such as robotics. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a new framework to make the decision-making process of the few countries with such cutting-edge technologies more efficient enough to coordinate in a timely manner how to prevent the technology drain.”
Joining the country needs to balance internal and external pressure
Suzuki, a professor at the Institute of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, believes that the United States has imposed export controls on Chinese companies such as Huawei, and the addition of Japan, which has high-tech capabilities, will greatly enhance the effectiveness of the new framework.
He said: "The difference between the new framework and the existing organizations is the number of participating countries and the technology that is the subject of regulation is mostly cutting-edge technology. Japan is very advanced in artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum technology and biotechnology, etc. It is a project that includes all emerging cutting-edge technologies. If a few countries such as the United States and Japan draw up a new framework, they can more flexibly grasp the dominance of this export control mechanism.”
Li Chun, deputy chief executive of the WTO and RTA Center of Taiwan's Chinese Economic Research Institute, believes that the cooperation between the United States and Japan can correct the shortcomings of the existing system. In the future, members with cutting-edge technologies will be included, but it will also cause pressure on members.
He said: "It is expected that the new framework will establish a new information exchange mechanism and a multi-country export control regulatory framework through the cooperation between the United States and Japan to correct the problem of insufficient binding force of the Wassenaar Agreement. In the future, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. have high-tech Partners who have long-term cooperation with the United States and Japan can also closely observe the possibility of being invited to join this new framework. However, for participating member countries, although it will help ensure the outflow of key technologies, it will choose sides between the United States and China. The pressure will increase accordingly.”
In this regard, Suzuki, a professor at the Institute of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, said that not only from the position of the country, but also considerable pressure within the country.
He said: "The competition for technological hegemony between China and the United States is becoming more and more serious, but because China's market is really huge, private companies in the United States and Japan are still very active in wanting to have more trade with China. Of course, business owners want less regulation. There is the possibility of higher interests, often exporting high-tech products to China, and joint research with Chinese universities or other research institutions. In this case, we do worry about gradually losing Japan's technological advantages, and these The inflow of cutting-edge technology into China and its transfer to military use will enhance China's military strength and pose a greater threat to Japan."
Suzuki said that the Japanese government has indeed taken corporate interests into consideration when formulating regulations to prevent technology outflow. He believes that because the goal is to prevent China, other member states of the new framework will also face the challenge of balancing the interests of private enterprises with national security.